Experian Commercial Pulse Report | 4/8/2025
Experian has released our April 8th Commercial Pulse Report. As the U.S. economy moves through a phase of recalibration, this week’s Experian Commercial Pulse Report highlights one area in particular that’s undergoing notable change—the labor market.
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Macroeconomic Highlights
Inflation eased to 2.8% in February, while job growth remained solid with 228,000 new jobs added in March. Unemployment rose slightly to 4.2%, and consumer sentiment dropped to 57.0—the lowest since late 2022. Despite rising wages, economic uncertainty is growing, reflected in cautious optimism among small businesses.
The U.S. Labor Market Presents a Paradox for Business Owners
While macroeconomic indicators show some signs of resilience—such as moderate job growth and easing inflation—recent research zeroes in on the evolving dynamics between workers and employers. For small businesses navigating talent shortages, shifting workforce expectations, and rising labor costs, understanding these trends is critical.
High Satisfaction, But Growing Uncertainty
Despite concerns about a slowing job market, job satisfaction among American workers remains high. According to a recent Pew survey featured in the report, only 12 percent of workers report dissatisfaction with their current jobs. However, 25 percent say they’re likely to look for a new role in the coming months. This disconnect suggests that workers, while content, are watching the labor market closely and weighing their options—especially as job openings become harder to come by and hiring slows across several sectors.
Unionization: Fading Membership, Rising Support
Union membership has steadily declined for decades, now representing just 9.9% of the U.S. workforce or about 14.3 million workers. Yet paradoxically, public support for unions is rising, particularly among younger employees. A Gallup survey cited in the report found that over 70% of Americans now approve of unions. While many remain undecided about joining, younger workers are increasingly labeled as “union curious”—interested in collective action but unsure of the long-term implications. At the same time, older employees are dominating union rolls, with workers aged 55 and over now making up 24.3% of union members—a nearly 80% increase from 2000.
The Business Impact of Unionization
For employers, particularly small businesses, these shifting sentiments present new challenges. Unionization can drive up payroll and benefits costs, slow down decision-making, and foster adversarial dynamics between leadership and employees. The report also highlights that union-heavy environments often experience higher operating costs and reduced managerial flexibility—factors that can be especially burdensome for resource-strapped small businesses.
However, the rise in union interest can’t be ignored. In today’s competitive labor landscape, addressing employee concerns proactively—particularly around compensation, benefits, and workplace culture—may help business owners retain talent and avoid labor disputes.
Why This Matters Now
These labor market dynamics are unfolding at a time when small business optimism, while slightly improving, remains cautious. The Experian Small Business Index rose to 45.4 in February—its second monthly increase—suggesting that while owners are willing to invest in their businesses, they remain watchful of economic uncertainty and evolving workforce demands. Download this week’s report for more insights on the evolving labor market and more.
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Want to learn more? Download the full Commercial Pulse Report for April 8th, 2025.
Experian Commercial Pulse Report Explores Implications of Rising Premiums As the year draws to a close, one issue looms large for millions of small business owners: the rising cost of healthcare. According to the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report, small business survival may soon hinge on a single factor — whether enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies are extended into 2026. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update The Clock Is Ticking on ACA Subsidies The American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act temporarily expanded ACA subsidies, helping make coverage more affordable for millions. But those enhancements are set to expire at the end of 2025 — a policy shift that could unleash a wave of economic strain. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that if these subsidies lapse, individuals who purchase insurance through the ACA marketplace could see a 75% increase in premiums. Why does this matter so much for small businesses? Because half of all ACA marketplace enrollees are small business owners, entrepreneurs, or their employees. Coverage Is Shrinking, and Costs Keep Climbing Smaller businesses have historically been less likely to offer health insurance benefits than their larger counterparts. In 2025, only 64% of businesses with 25 to 49 employees offer health benefits — the lowest level ever recorded. And while large employers are still required by the ACA to offer coverage to full-time workers, they too are feeling the pressure. Since 2010, employers have gradually reduced the share of healthcare premiums they cover, even as deductibles have risen by 164% for single coverage plans. The result? Business owners are being squeezed from both sides — by rising insurance costs and a more financially stressed workforce. The Ripple Effects Could Be Widespread If enhanced subsidies aren’t renewed, many small businesses may have no choice but to: Shut down operations Cut staff Shift jobs into larger organizations that can offer coverage That would be a blow not only to small business dynamism but also to broader economic sectors. Reduced consumer spending could hit industries like retail, real estate, and manufacturing, while healthcare providers face payment cuts and job losses due to shrinking coverage pools. What’s Next? With Congress set to vote on subsidy extensions before the end of the year, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The outcome will likely define affordability, access, and entrepreneurship for years to come. For small business owners, now is the time to assess your coverage plans, understand your employee needs, and prepare for potential cost increases. For policymakers and industry leaders, it’s a critical moment to ensure healthcare reforms continue to support the backbone of the U.S. economy — small businesses. Experian continues to provide actionable data to help businesses, lenders, and policymakers navigate uncertainty. To access the full Commercial Pulse Report and explore more insights on small business credit and sector-specific performance: ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
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